Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) across Australia are forecast to rise significantly over the remainder of the decade, with annual registrations expected to exceed 640,000 by 2030, according to the latest market outlook from a media source.

The projection indicates that EV adoption in Australia could accelerate from current levels, supported by increasing model availability and regulatory measures aimed at reducing vehicle emissions.

EV sales growth already underway

In 2025, EV sales, including both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), increased compared with 2024. BEVs accounted for approximately two-thirds of total EV sales, while PHEV registrations recorded year-on-year growth.

Media sources forecasts that PHEV sales will peak in 2026, after which overall EV sales are expected to increase by more than 100,000 vehicles annually. Under this scenario, annual EV registrations could exceed 500,000 by 2029 and reach approximately 640,961 by 2030.

Policy and product mix supporting growth

Analysts state that Australia's New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), which came into effect in mid-2025, has influenced purchasing patterns by encouraging manufacturers to introduce more efficient EVs ahead of stricter emissions targets.

The expanding range of electric SUV models priced below AUD 40,000 (US$ 28,270) is expected to support adoption, as smaller and more affordable vehicles appeal to a broader segment of buyers.

Market observers also note a shift in the competitive landscape among manufacturers. Chinese brands such as BYD are narrowing the gap with established manufacturers such as Tesla, with models such as the BYD Sealion becoming increasingly prominent in the Australian EV market.

Challenges and uncertainties ahead

Despite the forecasts, analysts caution that the transition may not be uniform across all electrified vehicle categories.

Uncertainty remains regarding how plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrid electric vehicles will be treated under efficiency standards and how this may influence buyer demand relative to full BEVs.

Future growth will also depend on the continued expansion of charging infrastructure, competitive pricing, and consumer confidence in EV range and resale values, all of which have influenced adoption patterns globally.